Ford Motor Company posted its worst quarterly earnings miss in four years when it reported fourth-quarter 2024 results, with adjusted earnings per share coming in 32% below analyst expectations.
The US automaker reported adjusted earnings of 13 cents per share compared with analyst estimates of 19 cents, according to LSEG data. The miss represents Ford’s first quarterly shortfall since 2024 and its worst performance since a 42% difference in the fourth quarter of 2021.
Ford’s earnings disappointment was largely attributed to unexpected tariff costs of roughly US$900 million related to credits for auto parts not taking effect as early as expected. The company had confirmed US$7.7 billion in earnings before interest and taxes for the fourth quarter as of December 15, but the additional costs reduced that figure to US$6.8 billion.
Supplier fire compounds challenges
Ford chief financial officer Sherry House said the lower-than-expected earnings were also impacted by fires at a Novelis aluminium supplier plant in New York last year, which is not expected to be fully operational until the middle of this year. The plant supplies Ford’s lucrative F-Series pickup trucks.
“We will see a billion-dollar benefit roughly in 2026; however, this year, due to the Novelis impact, we’re going to have tariffs increasing in order to secure aluminium that is roughly the same amount of that savings,” House told reporters.
The Novelis fire had a US$2 billion impact during the second half of the year for Ford, House added. Ford’s net tariff impact is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year at US$2 billion in 2026.
Record revenue despite challenges
Despite the earnings miss, Ford achieved record revenue of US$187.3 billion in 2025, up 1% from US$185 billion the previous year. Fourth-quarter revenue reached US$45.9 billion, down 5% from the same period in 2024, but exceeded analyst expectations of US$41.83 billion.
Ford chief executive Jim Farley said the company’s 2025 results continue to demonstrate the underlying business is improving despite the special items impacting results.
2026 rebound expected
Ford has provided guidance for 2026 that suggests a significant rebound, with adjusted earnings before interest and taxes expected to reach between US$8 billion and US$10 billion, up from US$6.8 billion in 2025. The company also expects adjusted free cash flow of between US$5 billion and US$6 billion, compared with US$3.5 billion in 2025.
Capital expenditures are projected to increase to between US$9.5 billion and US$10.5 billion in 2026, up from US$8.8 billion in 2025.
On a business unit level, Ford’s traditional and fleet operations are expected to offset anticipated losses of US$4 billion to US$4.5 billion from its Model e electric vehicle unit this year. The Ford Pro fleet business is expected to generate pre-tax earnings of between US$6.5 billion to US$7.5 billion, while the traditional Blue business is projected to contribute US$4 billion to US$4.5 billion.
Ford reported a fourth-quarter net loss of US$11.1 billion, or a loss of US$2.77 per share, compared with net income of US$1.8 billion in the same period of 2024. On an unadjusted basis, the company’s net loss of US$8.2 billion for 2025 was its largest since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, according to FactSet.
The unadjusted loss included US$15.5 billion in special charges during the fourth quarter, largely related to a previously announced pullback in the company’s all-electric vehicle plans.
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