Electric vehicle sales could comprise 50% of new car purchases by 2030, and 100% by 2040, a new report for the Australian Government says.
That’s likely to increase pressure on policy makers to find new revenue sources to replace the $17 billion annually raised in fuel taxes, The Australian reports.
The rapid EV uptake forecast is modelled under a “likely action” scenario, which assumes new luxury car tax and fringe benefits tax exemptions, the removal of import restrictions on second-hand EVs, government procurement of EVs, and a range of state and local government incentives.
It would also require nearly $1.7 billion investment in new charging infrastructure, and would see EV sales rise from 3100 a year to more than 70,000 annually over the next five years.
The Energeia report expects a proposed carbon emissions standard for new vehicles in Australia would increase EV sales by up to 300%.
The report, for the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, found financial incentives, particularly those reducing EV purchase costs, had the biggest impact on EV uptake.
Non-financial incentives, such as public charging infrastructure, free parking and preferential use of transit lanes play a supporting role, the report says.
Energeia says Australia lags “well behind leading international jurisdictions” in implementing EV-friendly policies.
The report says EV owners can expect to pay $11 to fill their 100kWh “tank” at a public refuelling station within 10 years. Depending on the model and the driving conditions, an EV with a 100kWh battery could have a 400km range.
It says EVs are expected to reach price parity with equivalent internal combustion cars by 2024.
“This report makes it clear that providing early support and incentives for electric vehicles provides a benefit for all Australians through cost savings and supports our economy through investment and job creation,” Electric Vehicle Council chief executive Behyad Jafari says.
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