Vehicle numbers on world roads are set to double to two billion by 2040 as the global economy grows, BP predicts.

About 300 million of them will be electric, compared to three million today.

The 2018 BP Energy Outlook report expects oil will still be providing 85% of transport fuel despite the increasing number of electrified vehicles.

It expects oil demand to continue growing, helped by air-condition and plastics making requirements, but the report says demand will peak in the late 2030s.

“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,” BP chief economist Spencer Dale says, the Daily Mail reports.

“Even in the scenario where we see a ban on combustion engines and very high efficiency standards, oil demand is still higher in 2040 than it is today.”

However, tougher restrictions on use of plastic such as shopping bags and packaging could dent oil demand by as much as two million barrels daily.

The BP report says world GDP more than doubles by 2040 under its “evolving transition” scenario, driven by increasing prosperity in fast growing emerging economies. It predicts more than 2.5 billion people will be lifted from low incomes, driving an increase in global energy demand.

China and India account for half of the growth in that demand.

“The world continues to electrify, with almost 70% of the increase in primary energy going to the power sector,” the report executive summary says.

“The share of vehicle kilometres powered by electricity increases, as the number of electric cars grows and they are used more intensively.

“The interaction of fully autonomous cars with shared mobility substantially boosts the intensity with which electric cars are driven.”

The report says renewable energy is the fastest-growing energy source, accounting for 40% of the increase in primary energy. “The energy mix by 2040 is the most diversified the world has ever seen.”

In the evolving transition scenario, carbon emissions continue to rise, signalling the need for a comprehensive set of actions to achieve a decisive break from the past, the report adds.

Visit bp.com for more information.